A visiting postdoc, Malin Pinsky, is coming into town for a few hours and
will be presenting some interesting work on teasing out climate change
effects from trawl survey data. He did his PhD with Steven Palumbi at
Stanford and is now a postdoc at Princeton University under Simon Levin.
His presentation will be on Friday 3 August 10:30am in FSH203, and will be
30 minutes plus ample time for questions.
Title: Can marine species keep up with climate velocity? Insights from
bottom trawl surveys in North America
Recent studies have indicated that climate velocities in the ocean can be as
fast or faster than on land, and in some cases greater than 200 km/decade.
The implications of this fact, however, remain unclear. Do marine species
follow their thermal envelopes? Can marine species keep up? Which species
are more likely to track changes in their environment? Our research uses the
last few decades of bottom trawl surveys on the continental shelves of North
America to test whether the direction and magnitude of range shifts among
fishes and invertebrates are predictable from local climate and species
We find that local differences in climate trajectories can explain otherwise
surprising differences in direction and magnitude of shift, but that on
average, marine species lag behind their thermal envelopes. Life history
traits explain additional variation among species, and range shifts appear
to be somewhat predictable even from very simple models. These results begin
to indicate which types of species will be winners and losers under climate
change and how fisheries are likely to be altered by shifting ranges.